The short version: The Austin-area median sale price hit $500K in 2022, about 48% above its long-run 4%-a-year trend. In 2026 so far it is about $420K: 16% under the peak and about 7% above trend. The trend line itself reaches $500K in mid-2032. If mortgage rates ease toward 6%, prices flatten onto the trend by 2028; around 6.5–7%, they dip about 3% more, bottom around 2028, and return to $500K in mid-2032; above 7.5%, they dip about 7% more and return around 2033–34. These are judgment scenarios, not a guarantee.
I get this question all the time, from buyers, sellers, and agents: when do Austin home prices get back to where they were in 2022? My best answer: about 2032.
How Far Above the Trend 2022 Went
Over the long run, Austin-area prices grow about 4% a year: roughly 2% inflation plus 2% real growth. Fit that line to every year since 1978 and it tracks the market pretty well.
In 2022 we blew way past it. The yearly median hit $500K, about 48% above the trend. That’s basically ten years of appreciation crammed into two.
Since then the median has slid to about $420K for 2026 so far. That’s 16% under the peak, and only about 7% above the trend. It’s not a crash. It’s the market letting the trend line catch up, and it’s almost there.
Three Paths, Depending on Mortgage Rates
What happens next depends a lot on mortgage rates. The 30-year rate dipped under 6% in February (5.98%). This month it hit 7.40%, the highest since November 2023, and it was 7.32% as of October 22.
Here’s how I see the three paths. These are my best judgment, not a guarantee:
- Rates ease back toward 6%. Prices flatten out and settle onto the trend by 2028, then get back to $500K around 2032.
- Rates hang around 6.5–7% (my best guess). Prices dip about 3% more, bottom out around 2028, then start growing again. Back to $500K in mid-2032.
- Rates stay above 7.5%. A deeper dip, about 7% from here, and 2022 prices don’t come back until 2033–34.
Either way, the 4% trend line itself crosses $500K in mid-2032.
We’ve Seen Bigger Swings Before
Austin has been here before, and worse. In the mid-’80s boom, prices ran about 25% above the trend, then crashed to 22% under it and stayed below the line until 2000. That took the oil bust and the savings-and-loan crisis together. After 2008, prices dipped to 11% under the trend by 2011, then recovered.
Today we’re still above the trend, not below it. That’s why I call this a reset, not a crash.
What I’d Tell Buyers and Sellers
Buyers: you have more choices and more room to negotiate than you’ve had in years. You don’t need to time the exact bottom.
Sellers: 2022 comps are distant history now. Price for today’s market and you’ll sell. Price too high, and you won’t.
Why This Matters If You’re an Agent
Charts like this aren’t a newsletter at JRE. Every Texas agent here has this cycle chart for their own area in Market Health, inside our agent portal, so you can walk into a listing appointment and show a seller exactly where their market sits against its long-run trend. And since this week, our clients in the Austin metro see it in their own home portal too, so the conversation keeps going after closing.
That’s the point: real data, for your area, ready to use with your clients. If that’s how you want to work, let’s talk. You can also see the rest of the platform.
Source: Unlock MLS closed single-family sales, Austin area, 2014–2026 (2026 is January–September). Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac 30-year fixed. Trend is 4% a year, fit to Austin-area prices since 1978. Projections are Jorgenson Real Estate scenarios, not a guarantee. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Sources
- Unlock MLS closed single-family sales, Austin area (yearly median, 2014–2026)
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (30-year fixed)
General information, not legal advice. TREC says I can’t practice law, and I like my license. Run your specific situation past your broker or a real estate attorney.
← All broker notes · Get The Debrief monthly → · Talk with us →