Rates jumped. Here’s what to tell your people.

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By Kasey Jorgenson, designated broker, Jorgenson Real Estate · October 3, 2026

The short version: Mortgage rates track the bond market, not the Fed. Higher energy prices, hot inflation, strong economic data, and heavy Treasury borrowing pushed the 10-year Treasury past 5% and the 30-year mortgage rate to about 7.6% at its late-September peak. Call your sphere and explain it, price listings right on day one, and negotiate seller credits for buyers.

Mortgage rates just had their worst stretch in years. Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year average hit 7.45% on September 24, crossed 7.5% for the first time since April 2024 a few days later, and peaked at 7.60% on September 30. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, which runs a little lower, was 7.28% on October 1, up from 6.34% a year ago.

Your clients are going to ask you about it. Here’s what’s actually happening and what to say.

Why rates jumped (it isn’t the Fed setting them)

Mortgage rates don’t come from the Federal Reserve. They come from the bond market, specifically the mortgage-backed securities that lenders sell your buyer’s loan into, which compete with Treasury bonds for the same investors. Here’s the chain:

1. Energy prices rose with the conflict involving Iran, on top of inflation that was already running hot.
2. The economy kept posting strong numbers, and the government is borrowing heavily, so there are a lot of Treasury bonds for sale.
3. Investors demanded more to hold them. The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% on September 15 for the first time since 2007, and reached about 5.3% by October 1.
4. Mortgage bonds have to compete for the same investors, so their yields rose too.
5. Lenders pass that straight through to the rate your buyer is quoted.

The Fed did raise its short-term rate by a quarter point on September 16, its first hike since 2023, and it pointed to elevated inflation and geopolitical developments. That adds pressure, but the fed funds rate and your buyer’s 30-year rate are different things. Mortgage rates can move a lot on days the Fed does nothing.

None of this is about Central Texas, your listing, or your buyer. And rates move both ways: the 30-year was as low as 5.99% in January and February of this year, and it was around 8% in October 2023, when deals still got done.

What to tell your sphere this week

The agent who explains the market is the agent they call. A short, calm message beats silence. Something like:

“Rates jumped this week, and you’ll see scary headlines. Here’s the short version: rates follow the bond market, and it’s reacting to oil and inflation, not to anything about our area. If you’re thinking about buying or selling in the next year, let’s talk about what it means for your numbers.”

Where to focus

• Sellers: price it right on day one. In a higher-rate market, overpriced listings sit and then chase the market down. Price with data from the start.
• Buyers: this is a negotiating market. Ask for seller credits toward a rate buydown, and compare loan programs. FHA and VA rates often price below conventional.
• Be careful with “marry the house, date the rate.” Refinancing later only works if rates fall enough to cover the cost of refinancing, and nobody can promise that. Buyers should be able to live with the payment they sign up for. What they can’t do is go back and renegotiate the price.
• Stay in front of your people. The agents who keep working through markets like this are the ones who take market share when it turns.

Want the math on credits versus price cuts? See price cut or seller credit.

General information, not legal advice. TREC says I can’t practice law, and I like my license. Run your specific situation past your broker or a real estate attorney.

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